New research findings show why the quantum threat to Bitcoin is more theoretical than practical.
A recent academic study (arxiv.org/abs/2603.25519) by Dallaire-Demers and BTQ Technologies Team arrives at a remarkable conclusion: a quantum computer attack on the Bitcoin mining network would require the energy output of a star. This finding shifts the discussion around quantum risks from the purely cryptographic level to fundamental physical limits. While companies like IBM, Google, and Microsoft are investing billions in quantum research, the practical hurdles for a successful attack on Bitcoin remain considerably higher than previously assumed. The study provides concrete data for a debate that has often been conducted speculatively.
Governance Rather Than Technology as the Core Challenge?
Interestingly, Grayscale concludes in a parallel analysis that Bitcoin’s quantum problem is less a technical issue than a governance one. The greater challenge, according to this view, lies in how the network would coordinate a response to theoretical quantum threats, not in the cryptographic vulnerability itself. From our perspective at CorPa, this assessment reflects what we observe in conversations with institutional clients: concerns about quantum risks are often less technically than structurally motivated. Family offices ask primarily about governance mechanisms and upgrade paths, rather than the specifics of cryptography.
There Is, However, an Often Overlooked Dimension of Bitcoin Security
What makes these research findings particularly valuable is the connection between energy physics and cryptography. While Nobel laureates such as John Clauser do warn of real quantum threats, the energy analysis reveals a fundamental barrier that goes beyond purely theoretical considerations. At the same time, other blockchain projects such as XRP are already actively working on quantum-resistant protocols, drawing attention to different security approaches. This development illustrates that Bitcoin ensures its security less through preventive protocol adjustments than through the sheer impossibility of practical attacks.
And the Headlines About “Quantum Encryption Being Broken”?
A second, equally illuminating study (eprint.iacr.org/2025/1237) by Peter Gutmann (University of Auckland) and Stephan Neuhaus (Zurich University of Applied Sciences) turns its attention to a different part of the narrative: the recurring headlines claiming that quantum computers are already beginning to break established encryption. The researchers examined every major alleged quantum cryptography “breakthrough” of the past two decades and found that all of them can be replicated using an off-the-shelf 8-bit home computer from 1981, an abacus, and a dog. This is not some punchline, but a serious methodological finding: the published quantum factorisations were achieved exclusively through mathematical tricks that do not work on ordinary cryptographic keys. The numbers were chosen specifically because they can be factorised particularly easily through physical experiments, a technique that is not applicable to real RSA keys.
The study’s core objective is to establish evaluation criteria by which future quantum factorisation attempts can be fairly assessed, and thereby prevent resources from being diverted away from genuinely existing security problems. For institutional investors, this means that the media excitement surrounding quantum computer attacks on cryptography is, in large part, not backed by valid scientific results. What appears to be technological progress frequently turns out, on closer inspection, to be laboratory setups that are irrelevant to real-world encryption scenarios.
What This Means for Institutional and Private Investors
These findings open up a new perspective for investors. For institutions, private investors or family offices, the physical impossibility of a practical quantum attack means that Bitcoin allocations rest on a more solid foundation than is often assumed. Quantum risks can henceforth be categorised as a manageable infrastructure consideration, one that neither creates immediate pressure to act nor calls long-term investment theses into question. The fact that both the Federal Reserve and the ECB view quantum threats as a system-wide issue affecting all cryptographic systems further underscores that Bitcoin does not stand alone here, and that the industry is working in a coordinated way toward future-proof solutions.
